OpenAI and Upwork map AI's freelance shift
A joint OpenAI–Upwork study finds AI-related freelance postings bundle a wider range of tasks and carry larger fixed-price budgets, which suggests AI is changing how clients scope work rather than simply replacing it.
OpenAI's Economic Research Team published new research with Upwork. The study compares what people do directly in ChatGPT with what clients hire freelancers to do on Upwork's marketplace. It is the latest entry in OpenAI's Work at the Frontier series.
The two platforms carry different kinds of work. Writing makes up a much larger share of ChatGPT use, while video and animation make up larger shares of Upwork postings. Of 63 work categories analyzed, 43 followed one pattern: activities that were relatively common in ChatGPT lost share on Upwork, and less common ones gained. The other 20 showed the reverse, and the authors say ChatGPT use alone does not explain changes in freelance demand. They also note that the comparison reflects how people currently use ChatGPT, not everything AI can do, a gap OpenAI calls the "capability overhang."
By late 2025, clients were asking for AI in more kinds of work, including chatbot development, video production, marketing automation and application integration. AI-related postings listed about as many tasks as other postings, but they more often combined tasks that had rarely appeared together. One example is AI-generated video, editing and motion graphics in a single job. From early 2023 to late 2025, the task mix in these postings became 45% more diverse, equivalent to going from about 15 equally common tasks to about 21.
Posted hourly rates were similar for AI-related and other work. AI-related projects, however, had larger fixed-price budgets and more hours of work, which the authors say may partly reflect broader scope.
The researchers say the findings "do not point to a simple substitution story." The summary does not give sample sizes or absolute budget figures.